Looks like the format war is not ending anytime soon, and I was THIS close to caving in and buying a Blu-ray player…

Paramount & Dreamworks Will Release Exclusively On HD-DVD

Transformers, which had previously been confirmed for Blu-ray release, will now be exclusively on HD-DVD instead.  Word is Michael Bay is so pissed off about this that he will not return to direct Transformers 2.

Paramount is right though, HD-DVD is cheaper and it’s “good enough.” It’s kind of like the difference between someone with $100 million and someone with $1 billion: there’s not a lot the billionaire can do that the other guy can’t.  That’s the law of diminishing returns.  So what if Blu-ray holds more data, HD-DVD holds enough data.  Other than that, the discs and the players are cheaper to manufacture.  They both utilize the same A/V codecs, so quality can be the same.  There is some notion that copyright protection is better with Blu-ray, but is that really true or just Sony’s marketing machine blowing smoke up everyone’s asses?

The fact is I was all set to call the battle in Blu-ray’s favor after the Blockbuster decision.  Now I’m not so sure.

UPDATE - Changing the title of the thread as it is no longer very indicative of the thread’s contents.

Myself, I was in favour of Blu-Ray because it would (at least in theory) take longer to start feeling cramped (and yes, because Microsoft is backing HD-DVD), but in the grand scheme of things, I don’t give a rat’s ass who wins the war as long as someone friggin’ goes and wins it, already. “Copyright” “protection” isn’t really a factor, since whatever system is put in place will be ineffective within years or months.

seriously, either make all the players play both discs or just pick one. This is so stupid…

I’m actually more interested in the “Bay not directing Transformers 2” thing. 

(Honestly, I’m not sure if this is a plus or minus.  Bay has an overthetop style, but he knows how to make an event film.  I just hope the next guy either fucks it all up and makes the first look good or totally ups him.  I’m rooting for “totally ups” cuz Bay really isn’t that good at all.)

raven848 - 21 August 2007 04:03 PM

seriously, either make all the players play both discs or just pick one. This is so stupid…

Actually, this is one of those places where some government intervention or a heavy-handed standards body would’ve come in handy.  In China, next generation media has a government mandate to follow a spec based on HD-DVD.  A format war is only acceptable if the winner will be determined by the free market (consumers).  In this case, the winner is being determined by money under the table between studios, CE manufacturers and marketing groups.

Honestly, I’m for HD-DVD.  It’s cheaper to manufacture and more easily compatible with existing optical media (CD’s and DVD’s).  It holds enough information now.  It can be made to hold even more (as can BD) in the future.  Movies have gotten shorter, compression techniques have gotten better and how much time do you really spend with all those special features?  Myself… I buy a DVD, rip just the movie + audio track/subtitles of my choosing, then burn a copy I can just pop in and play without previews and special features.  My original, purchased copy spends its life in a dusty storage box in my garage.

I’m convinced that HD movies on demand and Internet downloads are going to soon do to DVD’s, HD-DVD’s and Blu-ray Discs what satellite radio and music downloads (both legal and illegal) have done to CD’s.  It’s just a matter of time, and prolonging the next generation format war is only making it worse.  There will be the die-hards who prefer a full-resolution hard copy, but for Joe Sixpack the alternative will be cheaper, more convenient and good enough.

The AACS copyright protection is damn-near identical between the two, and likewise both have been cracked by decryption teams and are available to download by not-quite-legal means. The primary differences are TDK’s Durabis hard-coating surface on Blu-ray discs, and the storage capacity. HD-DVD is running 15GB per layer, Blu-ray at 25. These combine to make a huge difference: With the new anti-scratch surfacing, Sony dropped the total thickness of the plastic layering to 0.2mm, allowing room for up to 8 layers of data, which is where the 200GB theoretical limit comes from. HD-DVD on the other hand is identical to standard DVDs, storing its information 0.6mm below the surface and limiting it to a (so far) 60GB maximum capacity. This may be “enough” for movies, but it’s certainly a huge disadvantage in the case of digital media storage, and that’s why computer manufacturers overwhelmingly support Blu-ray.

Price won’t be a factor in this race. HD-DVD may have more players on the market, but the cheap ones are only 720p and don’t support extended disc features. By Christmas this year, both formats will have $299 players that support 1080p and the HDMI 1.3 spec. Combo players will remain utterly worthless, as is the case with LG’s BH-100. So it’s basically down to one format or another.

As for the studio wars:

Right now it remains unwinnable for HD-DVD for three reasons: Columbia, MGM and Buena Vista. The first two are owned by Sony and comprise roughly a 40% market share in available back catalog. The latter is actually Disney. The move by Paramount and Dreamworks might sting a year from now, but Shrek the Third is the only real ace owned by either of them, and it’s already being released on Blu-ray as part of Dreamworks’ existing deal with Sony. Universal (the other major studio holding out as exclusively HD-DVD) has had a poor year in the box office, and really doesn’t bring anything to the table except a solid back catalog.

So with HD-DVD getting trashed in sales by a 2-to-1 margin in the first half of 2007 and the format war all but declared as won by Sony… why did Paramount and Dreamworks switch sides? Payments for “promotional consideration” in the amounts of $50 million and $100 million were paid to each company, respectively. Now, granted, there’s been a bit of speculative meanderings about the Blu-ray camp leaning on Target and Blockbuster for support, but this is a blatant move by corporate shills in an attempt to buy some ground back in the race. HD-DVD is going all-in, because they have nothing else. If this doesn’t pay off, well, they’re dead anyway.

I absolutely detest Sony for the dozens of other terrible calls they’ve made in the electronics industry, but they really do have the better format here.

"Format wars” are over, we need to have this caliber of invention occuring in more important fields.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

The primary differences are TDK’s Durabis hard-coating surface on Blu-ray discs, and the storage capacity. HD-DVD is running 15GB per layer, Blu-ray at 25. These combine to make a huge difference: With the new anti-scratch surfacing, Sony dropped the total thickness of the plastic layering to 0.2mm, allowing room for up to 8 layers of data, which is where the 200GB theoretical limit comes from.

The “anti-scratch” surfacing has been proven by real world consumers to be just as scratch-prone as the old surfacing.  The difference?  With the data so close to the surface, even minor scratches render the media unusable.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

HD-DVD on the other hand is identical to standard DVDs, storing its information 0.6mm below the surface and limiting it to a (so far) 60GB maximum capacity.

But Toshiba has shown they can squeeze more information out of a single layer, just like we eventually saw 80 minute CD’s.  In the meantime, the greater thickness of protective material is better protecting your data.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

This may be “enough” for movies, but it’s certainly a huge disadvantage in the case of digital media storage, and that’s why computer manufacturers overwhelmingly support Blu-ray.

The only BIG computer companies overwhelmingly supporting Blu-ray are Apple and Dell.  Microsoft and HP-Compaq overwhelmingly support HD-DVD.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

Price won’t be a factor in this race. HD-DVD may have more players on the market, but the cheap ones are only 720p and don’t support extended disc features.

Price is already a factor in this race.  Even after the dramatic price cuts by the Blu-ray CE Mfgs in the last quarter, HD-DVD players are 50% cheaper.  First gen players were limited to 1080i (not 720p), but the second gen players are 1080p and have won critical acclaim for their upscaling capabilities of traditional DVD material.  Third gen players are already due by Christmas.  Meanwhile finding any second gen Blu-ray player other than a PS3 has been difficult.  I can’t even order the Panasonic through the employee purchase program thanks to the limited supply.  As far as not supporting extended disc features, I hope you’re not talking about all the special features Blu-ray plus Java was supposed to bring to the table.  That has been a disaster for the Blu-ray camp, and is one of the main reasons the Blu-ray “standard” is still not buttoned up.  HD-DVD, on the other hand, has its requirements pretty well written in stone.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

By Christmas this year, both formats will have $299 players that support 1080p and the HDMI 1.3 spec.

No, Blu-ray will have $299 players.  HD-DVD will still have cheaper players.  This is because of the traditional depth of the media (.6mm).  HD-DVD players don’t require TWO optical assemblies (used to focus the laser) to be able to play CD’s and DVD’s.  Blu-ray players do, and this is why some first gen Blu-ray players (I’m looking at you, Sony) couldn’t support older optical formats.  Furthermore, with China’s mandate regarding next gen optical media, there are a bunch of cheap Chinese mfg’s (the same people responsible for the flood of reliable $25-30 region-free, DIVX certified, progressive scan DVD players) ready to bring you HD-DVD players by only slightly modifying the products they will sell back home.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

Combo players will remain utterly worthless, as is the case with LG’s BH-100. So it’s basically down to one format or another.

Samsung has confirmed that their third gen offering will be a combo player.  Maybe Sony shouldn’t have blamed Samsung for the delay in getting Blu-ray to market.  The competition will likely bring down the cost of LG’s combo offering, which was simply too expensive for widespread adoption on the first go around.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

As for the studio wars:

Right now it remains unwinnable for HD-DVD for three reasons: Columbia, MGM and Buena Vista. The first two are owned by Sony and comprise roughly a 40% market share in available back catalog. The latter is actually Disney. The move by Paramount and Dreamworks might sting a year from now, but Shrek the Third is the only real ace owned by either of them, and it’s already being released on Blu-ray as part of Dreamworks’ existing deal with Sony. Universal (the other major studio holding out as exclusively HD-DVD) has had a poor year in the box office, and really doesn’t bring anything to the table except a solid back catalog.

The real 300lb gorilla is Warner, currently format neutral.  Warner sells more next gen media than anyone else.  Warner was originally in the HD-DVD exclusive camp, but went neutral and saber rattles every so often with its own proposed Total HD compromise.  If Warner were to swing one way or the other, exclusively, that would be HUGE at this point in the game.  It would likely kill either format to lose that support.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

So with HD-DVD getting trashed in sales by a 2-to-1 margin in the first half of 2007 and the format war all but declared as won by Sony…

Yes, but the average HD-DVD player owner has purchased 10 movies already.  I bet you the PS3 being considered a BD player is responsible for some of that 2-1 margin in the first half of 2007 (when PS3’s finally became widely available for less than $2500 on eBay).  I also bet you Sony giving away 5 free BD movies with purchase of ANY BD player (regardless of manufacturer) will carry that going into this half of the year, but now Toshiba is doing something similar.

Rageous - 22 August 2007 08:24 PM

why did Paramount and Dreamworks switch sides? Payments for “promotional consideration” in the amounts of $50 million and $100 million were paid to each company, respectively. Now, granted, there’s been a bit of speculative meanderings about the Blu-ray camp leaning on Target and Blockbuster for support, but this is a blatant move by corporate shills in an attempt to buy some ground back in the race. HD-DVD is going all-in, because they have nothing else. If this doesn’t pay off, well, they’re dead anyway.

The payoff may not be ethical, but I wonder how much of it is to buy them out of their Blu-ray commitments?  Also, it’s not like Blu-ray group isn’t pushing around payola.  Paramount and Dreamworks were originally in the HD-DVD camp before probably getting paid off to go Blu-ray.  Fore-mentioned Warner was also originally in the HD-DVD camp before mysteriously becoming format neutral.  Both sides are buying votes, as far as I’m concerned.  So who has more money?  Microsoft-Toshiba or Sony-Matsushita-Phillips?

One more thing… If I were to go out RIGHT NOW and buy an HD-DVD player, I would sorely miss the following titles only available in Blu-ray currently…

PotC: Curse of the Black Pearl
PotC II: Dead Man’s Chest
The Fifth Element
Black Hawk Down

If I were to go out RIGHT NOW and buy a Blu-ray player, I would sorely miss the following titles only available in HD-DVD, currently…

The Big Lebowski
Serenity
Dune
Dazed & Confused
Hot Fuzz
Shaun of the Dead
Heroes (TV Series)
Lost In Translation
Army of Darkness
Mallrats
Clerks II
Billy Madison
Happy Gilmore
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
Meet the Parents
Meet the Fockers
Caddyshack
Pitch Black
Chronicles of Riddick
Bulletproof
The Jerk
Friday Night Lights
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Animal House
Accepted
You, Me and Dupree
The Polar Express
Apollo 13
The Matrix
The Last Starfighter
Bourne Identity
Bourne Supremacy

Makes my Blu-ray list look silly, doesn’t it?

Of course this will be different for every movie fan based on personal likes and dislikes.

Something else I read today, Blu-ray players have outsold HD-DVD players 5:1, while Blu-ray movies have outsold HD-DVD movies 1.46:1 (who came up with that 2:1 number, Sony’s marketing department?).  If I do my math right, this should mean that on a player by player basis, HD-DVD is out-selling Blu-ray about 3.5:1

This tells me that there are a LOT of PS3’s out there, and that PS3 owners have purchased one or two Blu-ray movies just to play around with their PS3’s.  Sounds familiar.  Buddy of mine bought a PS3.  He bought Layer Cake on Blu-ray just to test the thing out.  When asked why he didn’t buy a PS3 game, he said there were none out that he liked.  Seems we hear that complaint alot, and many reviewers have said the only thing the PS3 does well is play Blu-ray movies.

This also cements my earlier feeling that the biggest mistake made by either camp thus far was when Microsoft decided not to build the HD-DVD player into the xBox 360 Elite.  It was explained to me why this was, something to do with hardware requirements of the xBox 360 and the datapath speeds of available HD-DVD drives at the time.  Still, hindsight is 20/20.

Speaking of PS3s Mad Dawg, I saw a poll online on a news site a while ago that said 35-45% of PS3 owners were not even aware that their console was a “Blu-Ray Player”....shocking right?  Just as shocking as 43% of Xbox 360 users not knowing what “Xbox Live” is.
On to the point…
Every time I find momentum to cave in and purchase an HD player, some sort of event (like this) or informative pressure arises to make me change my mind or just get plain confused and want to wait a bit longer for something big to happen, like better universal players than the current LG one for instance.

Blu Ray for the win.

Sorry, Rage, you got pwned. Sony was just recently caught utilizing rootkits again.  I hope Blu-Ray dies a miserable death and, along with it, the PS3.

And no way are combo players a dead-end...they will be this format’s war only hope, no matter what Warner decides.

Upcoming electronics expos will be interesting, to say the least.  Samsung has confirmed they are bringing a combo-player to market.  Panasonic is expected to do the same.  Pioneer has been known to follow Panasonic’s lead at times, so they may well be planning to do the same.

If 4 of the 6 existing BD player CE MFG’s start putting out combo players (this would of course include LG), what would that mean for Blu-ray?  What would it do for HDM adoption?

Competition is good, though.  Just on news and rumors LG has dropped the price of their existing combo player.  If I can get a combo player in the $400-500 range by this time next year, I will probably pull the trigger.

Oh, and the first of the cheap Chinese HD-DVD players is due out in time for Christmas.  I suspect it will sell for between $150 and $200.  If the former, one has to wonder if it will make sense for people to buy a $100 upconverting DVD player or just spend the extra $50 to get a machine that upconverts DVD’s and plays HD-DVD’s.

dude, what am i supposed to do with all my BETA tapes?

i guess i should stop buying music and get an HD TV finally..in time for the Pats....

but yes, someone should step in and say the HD or BluRay is whats going down.

notBoston

!Boston, come watch football on my new plasma!  I’ll even provide the beer.

Ruh roh, HD-DUD is in trouble again. Warner is rumored to go Blu-ray exclusive at CES. It doesn’t matter how good Shrek sells, Warner > Paramount/Dreamworks and that would damn near be nail in the coffin. Parents are already starting to notice that Disney movies are Blu-ray only.

I always maintained it would come down to studio support, not price or feature superiority.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_51/b4063028294846.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives

Engadget -

Another day, another format war rumor. Business Week has a lengthy writeup on the possibility of lone dual-format holdout Warner Brothers switching to Blu-ray exclusively, and how it could affect the outcome of the long-running feud between high-definition disc formats HD DVD and Blu-ray. The rumor gets its seed from vice-chairman of Lionsgate Michael Burns, who claims that Warner will be turning blue soon. With Warner on their side, the Blu-ray studios would hold a 70% market share for the DVD market. Of course, if Warner shifts red, then the studio market will again be split into two equal halves, and consumers are left to wait and see if one format can outsell, outspend, or outlast the other until only one format remains. The stakes are so high that top execs from both camps are banging down Warner’s door with personal meetings—and possibly even truckloads of cash—to get Warner to turn to their side. One thing you can be sure of is that Warner is going to be keeping an extra close eye on the dual-format release of Harry Potter next week for guidance.

Congrats, you believed another BS rumor.  I will laff at your expense if/when the software sales totals this week eclipse those of Blu-Ray.

Zing. You lose.

Game over man, game over.

New Line too, apparently:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showpost.php?p=591269&postcount=331

Press release isn’t up yet, but New Line has announced they’re sticking with their brothers at Warner and going BD exclusive as well. Not a surprise, but thought I’d let people know.

Glad I invested in Blu-ray.

When I get to the point that I need next gen DVDs, i guess i’ll just pick up a PS3 and the HD attachment for my 360, and then be set.

But this “war” is bullshit. It should’ve just been mandated by the pope or some shit right at the beginning.

could have let BT’s camp decide…

raven848 - 05 January 2008 05:31 AM

could have let BT’s camp decide…

yep. that would work out GREAT.

btakasuperwank -

WE DONT HAVE TIME TO TALK ABOUT DVD FORMATS RIGHT NOW KAIA HAS BEEN STOL’D!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (PS IM PLAYING A SHOW COME SEE ME)


MINIDISCFTW

PEASE...b

It ain’t even ova’:  http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/infotech/view_article.php?article_id=110708

Sony and the BDA can go pound sand.

I’m all for re-introducing V2000.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/05/new-line-confirms-itll-follow-in-warners-blu-footsteps/

D’oh. BS rumors win again.

It’s all because Fox are living up to their name; stealthy, backstabbing beasts willing to sell themselves out to the highest bidder all the while feigning a move to go Red. I love HD DVD combo discs...and I hate Sony, for they have fuqqed us all again.